Severe weather expected in Tampa Bay ahead of system likely to be major hurricane (2025)

A tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea is becoming more organized, and forecasters are expecting a major hurricane will threaten Florida by the end of the week.

Federal meteorologists said Monday the system is expected to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days, and it is likely to intensify.

Forecasters said the system, called Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, will become a major hurricane as it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. Major hurricanes reach Category 3 status or higher, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

While the National Hurricane Center shows the system could become a Category 3 storm, forecasters said the 5 p.m. intensity forecast is below other hurricane forecasting models.

“While it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts, the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida west coast is increasing,” the hurricane center said.

Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 41 Florida counties — including Pinellas, Pasco and Hillsborough — Monday afternoon.

DeSantis’ emergency order, among other things, activated the Florida National Guard, allowed the state’s top transportation official to waive road tolls ahead of potential county evacuations and allowed pharmacists to give patients in the affected counties 30-day emergency prescription refills.

As of 5 p.m. Monday, the system was moving north-northwest at 7 mph with sustained winds near 35 mph. The potential cyclone is expected to move northwest through Tuesday night. On Wednesday and Thursday, the system will likely pick up speed and continue north or northeast.

“Note that the system is expected to grow in size while it traverses the Gulf,” forecasters wrote. “Thus, the storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center, particularly to the east of the system.”

There is a 90% chance the storm will form over the next 48 hours, according to the advisory.

Hurricane hunters were investigating the disturbance Monday afternoon, according to forecasters.

Tampa Bay emergency managers are monitoring the storm and evaluating the need for evacuations, though none had been ordered as of Monday afternoon.

Officials pay extra attention to storms brewing in the Caribbean because of their potential to rapidly intensify in warm waters, said Andrew Fossa, the Pasco County Emergency Management director.

Rapid intensification is when a storm’s maximum sustained winds increase by at least 35 mph in a day.

The system’s potential to strengthen quickly further complicates when counties decide to call for evacuations across the region.

“Normally, we have like 24 to 48 hours to start the evacuation,” Fossa said. “And in this sense, we’re going to have barely 24 hours to actually start pulling the trigger.”

Cathie Perkins, the director of Pinellas County’s Emergency Management Department, said potential storm surge data suggests surge greater than 9 feet in some areas of the county.

The possible surge is unlike anything Pinellas County has experienced, Perkins said.

Pinellas County will have an emergency meeting with county commissioners Tuesday to recommend a local state of emergency, Perkins said.

“We want to get everything in place,” Perkins said. “We want to get a little more data so we can make decisions as to where those evacuations could occur, what shelters we’re going to open.”

The storm is a “critical risk” for the area, she said.

Both emergency managers said to make sure evacuation plans are in place, should your evacuation group be called.

“We always encourage people to evacuate tens of miles, not hundreds of miles,” Perkins said. “Because it won’t take you as long, and you never how traffic is going to be.”

Tampa Bay meteorologists said there is already a slight risk for increased rain in the region starting Tuesday. Flooding, tornadoes and storm surge may be possible by Thursday.

Rodney Wynn, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Tampa Bay office, said there is “pretty good confidence” the cyclone will form, and that residents in the region should expect severe weather regardless of the potential system’s intensity or track.

The hurricane center anticipates heavy rainfall in the southeast U.S. beginning Wednesday and lasting through Friday, bringing the risk of flash and river flooding.

“Now is the time to check your emergency kit, make sure your emergency plan is in action,” he said. “You’ve got a couple of days before the weather is going to get really bad.”

A strong, cold area of low pressure in the central part of the United States will pull the system quickly northward toward the southeastern U.S., said Mike Clay, Spectrum Bay News 9 chief meteorologist.

“The models are in very good agreement that whatever comes up and gets into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, it’ll be a really favorable spot for strengthening, maybe rapid intensification,” Clay said.

Experts have pointed out pockets of extremely warm water off the Gulf Coast that could add fuel to the potential cyclone as it develops. Ocean heat content, which measures how deep warm waters extend past the surface, for both the gulf and Caribbean are at near-record highs.

The storm is expected to be fast moving. Rainfall likely won’t be a significant threat, like when Hurricane Debby crawled by. Instead, storm surge poses the greatest concern, Clay said.

Around this time of year, tides are running high, particularly in areas north of Tampa Bay, Clay said. Should a storm make landfall during a high tide, storm surge impacts would be greater.

The next named storm that forms in the Atlantic this season will be Helene.

The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring a tropical wave off the west coast of Africa. That disturbance has a 70% chance of forming over the coming week.

A summary of watches and warnings

A tropical storm watch means tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area within the next day or 1½ days.

A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the next 24 to 36 hours.

A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, and is typically issued two days before tropical-storm force winds.

A hurricane watch is in effect for Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico, and the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico, Grand Cayman and the Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Dry Tortugas and the lower Keys, south of the Seven Mile Bridge.

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